Peak Season Preparedness: Part 2 of 4
Running out of packaging during Black Friday is expensive.
Ordering six months' worth because nobody wants to run out isn't much better.
One leaves orders sitting in the warehouse. The other leaves cash and storage space tied up in packaging you might not need.
The sensible position sits somewhere between the two. And you can calculate it.
Rather than asking "How many boxes should we order for peak?", start with a better question:
How many days of packaging cover do we need?
That means looking at forecast orders, your actual mix of packaging, supplier lead times, storage space and the point at which you need to reorder.
Get those numbers right and peak packaging becomes far easier to manage.
Start with your peak order forecast
If you completed Part 1 of our Peak Season Preparedness series, you should already have an expected peak order volume.
If not, start with our Peak Season Readiness Calculator.
Your forecast does not need to be perfect. It needs to be useful.
For this example, let's say an ecommerce business expects:
Normal volume: 400 orders per day
Peak volume: 1,000 orders per day
It would be tempting to assume that means 1,000 boxes per day.
It probably doesn't.
One order does not always equal one box
This is where packaging forecasts often become inaccurate.
An ecommerce operation might use:
- Small postal boxes
- Medium postal boxes
- Large boxes
- Book wraps
- Paper mailing bags
- Bubble envelopes
- Specialist packs
- Multi-item cartons
The order profile matters.
Perhaps 45% of orders use your small box, 30% use your medium, 15% use a mailing bag and 10% use something else.
For 1,000 peak orders, your daily requirement would look more like this:
| Packaging format | Share of orders | Daily requirement |
|---|---|---|
| Small box | 45% | 450 |
| Medium box | 30% | 300 |
| Mailing bag | 15% | 150 |
| Other formats | 10% | 100 |
| Total | 100% | 1,000 |
That is already far more useful than ordering 1,000 of everything.
Use your own packaging data
Do not guess the percentages if you have the information available.
Take a representative period from your warehouse or order management data and work out how many orders used each packaging format.
For each format, record:
- Packaging SKU
- Units used
- Percentage of total orders
- Current stock
- Supplier lead time
- Quantity per pallet or delivery
- Storage requirement
- Minimum order quantity
Do the same exercise against previous Black Friday and Christmas data if you have it.
Your peak order mix may look quite different from a normal month.
A promotion on one product could suddenly push hundreds of orders into one particular box size. Gift sets may need larger cartons. Multi-buy offers can change the pack profile. Christmas gifting can increase the number of orders going to individual addresses rather than products being consolidated into larger orders.
Forecast the packaging mix, not just the number of orders.
Calculate peak packaging usage
Once you know the percentage of orders using each format, the first calculation is simple:
Forecast peak orders × percentage using that packaging format = forecast daily usage
Using our small box example:
1,000 orders × 45% = 450 boxes per day
If your expected peak period lasts ten trading days:
450 × 10 = 4,500 boxes
That gives you the expected requirement.
It still does not tell you how many you should order. For that, you need to know how quickly you can get more.
Supplier lead time changes the calculation
Imagine you use 450 small boxes per day during peak.
Supplier A can replenish them in two working days. Supplier B needs three weeks.
Those two situations require completely different stock strategies.
This is why simply adding 10% or 20% to your packaging order is a fairly crude way to prepare for peak.
Instead, calculate your reorder point.
Peak daily usage × (supplier lead time + chosen contingency days) = reorder point
Suppose peak usage is 450 boxes per day, supplier lead time is 5 working days and contingency is 3 days.
Your reorder point becomes:
450 × (5 + 3) = 3,600 boxes
When stock approaches 3,600 units, it is time to replenish.
The contingency is yours to set. A reliable locally manufactured stock box may need less cover than a highly specialised printed pack with a longer production cycle.
The point is to choose the buffer deliberately rather than ordering on instinct.
Calculate your days of cover
This is one of the most useful numbers to keep visible during peak.
Packaging units currently available ÷ forecast daily usage = days of cover
If you have 5,400 small boxes in stock and expect to use 450 per day:
5,400 ÷ 450 = 12 days of cover
That is much easier to act on than simply knowing you have 5,400 boxes.
Your warehouse team can now say:
"We have 12 days of cover and replenishment takes five days."
That is useful information.
"We have five pallets left" is only useful if everyone knows how many units are on a pallet and how quickly they are disappearing.
Do this for every business-critical packaging SKU
Not every item needs the same level of attention.
Focus first on packaging that would stop an order being dispatched if it ran out.
- Your highest-volume ecommerce box
- Custom printed mailers
- Specialist protective packaging
- Product-specific inserts
- Tamper-evident packaging
- Temperature-sensitive packaging
- Branded tape
- Shipping labels
- Paper void fill
Create a simple packaging stock sheet containing:
| SKU | Peak daily usage | Stock | Days of cover | Lead time | Reorder point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small box | 450 | 5,400 | 12 | 5 days | 3,600 |
| Medium box | 300 | 6,000 | 20 | 5 days | 2,400 |
| Mailing bag | 150 | 4,500 | 30 | 3 days | 900 |
Now the risk becomes much easier to see. The mailing bags are probably not the immediate concern. The small boxes deserve watching.
Stock packaging and bespoke packaging need different plans
A standard ecommerce box can often be replenished much faster than custom packaging.
If a stock format runs low, there may be another size or similar product available.
Bespoke packaging is different.
Production may include:
- CAD or structural work
- Artwork approval
- Printing
- Die cutting or conversion
- Gluing
- Quality checks
- Palletising
- Delivery
Board and production capacity need to be available too.
That means the reorder point for a bespoke pack may need to sit much further away from zero.
If a custom printed box has a three-week production cycle, discovering you have four days of stock left is not really a stock problem. It is already a supply problem.
Decide your emergency packaging before peak
Here is another useful question:
If this packaging SKU ran out tomorrow, what would we use instead?
Do not wait until it happens to answer it.
For each critical pack, identify an emergency alternative and record:
- Alternative packaging SKU
- Product compatibility
- Maximum product size or weight
- Protection requirements
- Sealing method
- Labelling requirements
- Customer experience implications
It does not need to be beautiful. It needs to get the order to the customer safely.
For some businesses, this might mean holding a small quantity of an unprinted stock box that can cover several products. For others, one slightly larger carton can act as a fallback for two or three bespoke sizes.
You might pay a little more per parcel or use more void fill during an emergency. That is still preferable to stopping dispatch completely.
Be careful with the "cheapest" unit price
Peak buying can create another trap.
Volume discounts make larger packaging orders attractive.
If 50,000 boxes cost less per unit than 25,000, ordering 50,000 can look like the obvious decision.
Look beyond unit price. Ask what the extra stock does to:
- Cash flow
- Warehouse space
- Pallet storage
- Handling
- Stock damage risk
- Future packaging changes
- Artwork changes
- Product range changes
The cheapest box on a purchase order is not always the lowest-cost packaging decision.
If your products, branding or order profile are changing quickly, holding months of packaging stock can remove flexibility.
Storage capacity belongs in the forecast
Packaging is mostly empty space. That makes it surprisingly good at filling warehouses.
A peak packaging order that looks sensible on a spreadsheet can create a problem when 20 extra pallets arrive at goods-in.
Before increasing stock, ask:
- How many units fit on a pallet?
- How many pallets will the peak requirement create?
- Where will those pallets physically go?
- Can packaging still reach the packing area easily?
- Will additional stock interfere with product storage or picking?
If space is limited, more frequent replenishment may make more sense than taking the whole peak requirement at once.
Talk to your packaging supplier about how stock can be produced, held and called off.
For larger operations, scheduled deliveries or ring-fenced stock can give you supply cover without putting every pallet into your own warehouse at the same time.
Packaging weight now deserves commercial attention too
Reducing packaging material has always helped with storage, transport and waste.
For businesses within the scope of packaging Extended Producer Responsibility, packaging data now has another commercial dimension.
From the 2026/27 operational year, PackUK is introducing modulated EPR fees linked to recyclability for liable producers. The scheme is designed to place higher costs on packaging that is harder to recycle and encourage more recyclable packaging choices.
That makes it useful to understand not only how many packs you use, but:
- The weight of each pack
- The material used
- How much material is being supplied
- Whether the packaging is correctly sized
- Its recyclability classification
Peak is not a good reason to abandon efficient packaging design.
Ordering thousands of oversized boxes "just in case" can increase material consumption, storage requirements, void fill and transport volume.
Your peak packaging check
Before signing off your peak packaging order, make sure you can answer these questions:
Demand
- What is our forecast peak order volume?
- What percentage of orders use each packaging SKU?
- Will promotions change our normal packaging mix?
- What was our actual usage during the last comparable peak?
Stock
- How many units do we physically have?
- How many days of peak cover does that give us?
- At what stock level do we reorder?
- Is the stock figure in the system accurate?
Supply
- What is the real replenishment lead time?
- Does that lead time change during Q4?
- Are minimum order quantities different for stock and bespoke packaging?
- Has production or delivery capacity been agreed with the supplier?
Storage
- How many pallets will arrive?
- Where will they go?
- Can the packing team reach packaging easily?
- Would staged deliveries work better?
Contingency
- Which packaging SKUs would stop dispatch if they ran out?
- What alternative packaging has been approved?
- Who is responsible for monitoring stock during peak?
- How often will days of cover be reviewed?
If you cannot answer some of those questions today, that is useful. You have found the gaps before peak finds them for you.
Connect packaging stock to your wider peak plan
Packaging should not sit in a separate spreadsheet that nobody looks at until something runs out.
Connect it to your wider fulfilment forecast.
If expected order volume changes, packaging requirements should change with it. If marketing adds another promotion, revisit the packaging mix. If sales outperform forecast, recalculate days of cover. If a supplier lead time changes, move the reorder point.
Your packaging forecast should move with the operation.
If you have not yet calculated your wider fulfilment capacity, start with Part 1: Is Your Ecommerce Operation Actually Ready for Peak?
You can then run your numbers through our free Peak Season Readiness Calculator.
Need help planning packaging for peak?
The Packaging Club supplies stock ecommerce packaging through our website and works with higher-volume ecommerce and fulfilment operations on bespoke packaging, stock planning and packaging supply.
If you are trying to work out what you need, when you need it and how to avoid filling the warehouse with unnecessary packaging, talk to The Packaging Club.
We can review your current formats, volumes, lead times and packing process and help build a more practical supply plan for peak.
Data references
PwC UK, UK consumers set to spend £6.4bn this Black Friday, 21 November 2025. PwC forecast £6.4 billion of UK Black Friday spending in 2025, with four out of every five pounds expected to be spent online through home delivery or click and collect.
PackUK, PackUK operational plan: 2026 to 2027, updated 10 August 2026. PackUK forecasts £1.558 billion in disposal, administration and impairment fees during the 2026/27 operational year.
PackUK, About PackUK, accessed September 2026. PackUK states that packaging EPR fees are modulated from 2026/27, with recyclability affecting fees for liable producers.
